Prelude to the April 6th Release of Hurricane Predictions 2011
Spring has sprung loose from the binds of Winter! Shoots of vibrant spring colors unfurl with sleepy gazes at the warming sun. The hearty residents of New England pull back the curtains and open doors to look at the newly awakening world around them, glad to have made it through another cold and snow bound winter. Even as the chill of the winter still lingers in the memory, something else is coming along with the enjoyment of the warmer weather. The ‘season’ is rapidly creeping up on New England. The 2011 Hurricane Season. Something no one wants to think about. As folks open their homes to the warm sun and breezes, the extra glass storm windows used for instillation changed out for the screens, as each section is taken down, take a moment to look through your windows. It’s home. A place to retreat to from the outside world. “What would happen if the windows broke in a wind storm or worse yet, a hurricane?” “What are the chances of it happening?” Who wants to even think about that. Unfortunately, it is something that does need to be addressed. As of 8 December 2010, the Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011(Full Report), from the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, “We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2011 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” Probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall:
- Entire U.S. coastline – 73% (avg. is 52%) – Up from 69% in 2010.
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 49% (avg.31%) – Up from 45% in 2010.
- Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 48% (avg. is 30%) – Up from 44% in 2010.
- Caribbean – 62% (avg. is 42%) – Up from 58% in 2010.
Worrisome? Certainly something to think about. The updated predictions come out on April 6th, 2011. Either way, it’s going to be an interesting season.
What’s your plan?